3 NFL teams who could surpass expectations in 2025

It’s late June, which means the NFL is on hiatus as players and coaches catch their final breather before the 2025 season officially starts. With most of the major off-season moves settled, now is a good time to look at which teams have put themselves into position to exceed expectations this fall.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are a lock to improve on their 6-11 record from a year ago. But people seem to have forgotten that this was arguably the NFC’s best overall team from 2019-2023, when they made three championship game appearances and two trips to the Super Bowl. Injuries and team drama upended their 2024 season, but things appear to have settled once again. San Francisco cleared valuable cap space by trading a declining Deebo Samuel to Washington, then used it to extend stars Fred Warner and George Kittle and to lock up franchise quarterback Brock Purdy. Those signings guarantee the Niners a respite from the training camp drama they’ve experienced the past few years, when players like Samuel, Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk made their contract disputes public by either holding out, demanding a trade, or both.

Barring another bout with the injury bug, the 49ers will be better on the field this season as well. Christian McCaffrey, who is the straw that stirs the team’s drink on offense, returns after missing most of last season. Some key free agent signings add needed depth. Former Los Angeles Rams wideout Demarcus Robinson brings experience to the receiving corps, while safety Richie Grant (formerly of the Falcons) and cornerback Tre Brown (Seahawks) should improve the secondary. Emerging young receivers Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are talented and explosive and should more than make up for the absence of Samuel.

For a franchise as high-profile as the 49ers, it’s interesting to have heard so little about them this off-season. While PhilIy garners most of the headlines in the NFC, and the feel-good Washington Commanders play the sexy upstart role, no one is talking much about San Francisco. That’s probably how head coach Kyle Shanahan wants it, after the drama of the past few years. I don’t know if San Francisco has enough to overtake the Eagles as the best team in the conference, but they should be back in the conversation after a frustrating 2024 campaign.

New England Patriots

The Patriots have won eight games total the past two seasons and are coming off of consecutive last-place finishes in the AFC East. Their futility last year was punctuated by the fact they held the pole position for the top overall pick in April’s draft heading into the final week of the regular season, only to squander it by upsetting the Buffalo Bills behind backup quarterback Joe Milton, whom they promptly traded to Dallas. In short, not much has gone right in New England since the final years of the Brady-Belichick dynasty.

And yet, optimism abounds in Foxborough. Former Patriot linebacker Mike Vrabel returns as head coach, replacing the overmatched Jerod Mayo. Vrabel brings with him a winning resume from his time at the helm in Tennessee as well as a reputation for being a tough, no-nonsense coach. He is bound to restore discipline and to build a better culture than his predecessor.

Vrabel will have the luxury of inheriting a potential star quarterback in Drake Maye, who showed great promise last year as a rookie despite being surrounded by one of the worst supporting casts in football. To help Maye, New England loaded up on offense in the draft, selecting its best offensive tackle (Will Campbell), one of its most explosive running backs (TreVeyon Henderson), and a burner at wideout (Kyle Williams). Williams will be joined in the receiving corps by free agent signee Stefon Diggs, who isn’t the player he once was but can still threaten a defense. The Patriots also brought back Josh McDaniels to run the offense, who should give Maye a more structured system in which to function.

Defensively, New England loaded up in free agency, adding big-name players like Milton Williams, Harold Landry and Carlton Davis. The talent in New England has improved significantly, while the coaching staff should be better, too. The Pats may not be ready to make a playoff run, but they should climb out of the AFC East cellar, and an eight or nine-win season is not out of the question.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The stock on the Steelers heading into the season is decidedly down. Pittsburgh’s quarterback drama, and the fact they settled on 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers to be a placeholder, was met with widespread criticism. The Steelers also traded their best playmaker from last year (George Pickens), and appear to have done little to close the gap between themselves and their AFC North rival, the Baltimore Ravens.

That’s the national perception. Those closer to the team feel Pittsburgh has improved significantly, particularly at quarterback. Rodgers is by no means the player he was in his prime, and his numbers last season in New York were some of the worst of his career. But his play got better as the season progressed and his injured Achilles, which cost him almost all of his 2023 season, recovered. He will play for a head coach in Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin, for whom he has the utmost respect. That was not the case last year with Robert Saleh in New York. Rodgers has said this will likely be his final season, and has expressed a determination to write one final heroic chapter to a Hall of Fame career. If the Steelers get the best of Rodgers, which they should, he will provide their most competent quarterback play since Ben Roethlisberger.

Pittsburgh has improved elsewhere as well. The absence of Pickens will be mitigated by the acquisition of DK Metcalf, with the added bonus that they’ll no longer have to tolerate Pickens’s juvenile behavior. Third-round draft pick Kaleb Johnson, a running back from Iowa, is a perfect scheme fit for offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s zone-heavy system. The line should be better,  too, with 2024 1st-Round pick Troy Fautanu returning after missing most of his rookie year with an injury.

Defensively, the Steelers have a potentially elite unit that should be bolstered by their top pick from this year’s draft, defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, as well as the additions of cornerback Darius Slay and safety Juan Thornhill.

The Steelers may not be ready to join the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs in the conversation on which team will rule the AFC. But there’s a good chance they’ll win Pittsburgh’s first playoff game since 2016.

San Francisco, New England and Pittsburgh have accounted for 17 of the league’s 59 Super Bowl titles. None are likely to add another Lombardi trophy to their mantle this season, but all three are trending in that direction.

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