Ranking the urgency of “winning now” for the NFL’s first-year coaches
07/23/2025
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There is plenty to discuss this week as all 32 NFL teams head to training camp. Among the most interesting topics: which first-year head coach has the most pressure to win early? Here are some thoughts on where they rank, from least to most urgent.
7. Kellen Moore, New Orleans
The Saints have a weak roster and expectations are low. That actually bodes well for Moore, the first-time head coach who was lured away from Philadelphia after helping guide the Eagles to a Super Bowl title. Moore has been a respected offensive coordinator in the league for several years now, but he steps into a situation in New Orleans as head coach that is far different from his previous stops. Moore had Dak Prescott at quarterback in Dallas, Justin Herbert in Los Angeles and Jalen Hurts in Philly. In New Orleans, he’ll work with rookie Tyler Shough and second-year player Spencer Rattler. One or the other may eventually develop into a reliable starter, but for this season, whomever quarterbacks the Saints is likely to take his lumps.
No one expects this to be an immediate turnaround. Unless things are a total disaster, Moore should have a reasonable grace period before he’s expected to win.
6. Liam Coen, Jacksonville
Coen is under a bit more pressure than Moore because he’s been brought in largely to restart Trevor Lawrence, who seems to have stalled after an encouraging start to his career. Coen got Baker Mayfield back on track in Tampa after a similar lapse, and will be expected to do the same with Lawrence.
Fixing Lawrence and fixing the Jags are not the same thing, though. While the first will certainly help with the second, and while Travis Hunter will be exciting no matter where he plays, Jacksonville is bad on defense. Plus, NFL fans barely remember there’s a franchise in Jacksonville these days, so the pressure on Coen to win immediately doesn’t feel all that high.
5. Aaron Glenn, New York Jets
The Robert Saleh/Aaron Rodgers era was so dysfunctional in New York that the main thing Glenn has to do this year is rebuild the culture. Winning games would be nice. But Glenn’s biggest task in Year One should be to restore a sense of pride and professionalism in the locker room.
Glenn is a Bill Parcells disciple, and his no-nonsense, hard-work approach should play well in that regard. Whether Justin Fields can play well at quarterback remains to be seen. The defense is solid, though, and should keep New York in most of its games. A seven or eight win season seems realistic, which would be fine for Glenn in his inaugural season.
4. Ben Johnson, Chicago
Johnson is the Golden Boy of this year’s freshman coaching class. Coming off a spectacular run as offensive coordinator in Detroit, where he turned around Jared Goff’s career and built Detroit’s offense into one of the league’s best, Johnson will be expected to do similar things with the Bears.
Caleb Williams was up-and-down as a rookie, and should benefit from Johnson’s tutelage. The Bears have struggled for forty years to find a true franchise quarterback, so banking on Williams is no sure thing. But Johnson’s leash should be fairly long, and if Williams shows growth, Johnson will stay in good favor.
3. Mike Vrabel, New England
The Patriots spent a lot of money in free agency this off-season, and Vrabel’s return to the franchise has fans feeling optimistic. This could lead to unrealistic expectations, which could put pressure on him to win early. However, after just firing Jerod Mayo after only one season, odds are Robert Kraft will be more patient with Vrabel.
Developing second-year quarterback Drake Maye will be important for new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, whose arsenal at the offensive skill positions includes explosive rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson. The defense should be solid, too. New England fans are talking as though the Patriots can double their win total from last season, which would be major progress. I’m not that bullish on the Pats, but I do expect improvement, which bodes well for Vrabel.
2. Pete Carroll, Las Vegas
Carroll is under a fair amount of pressure to win early for practical reasons. He turns 74 in September, which makes him the oldest head coach in NFL history. Quite frankly, Carroll probably doesn’t have time to invest in a multi-year rebuild. His plan to turn back the clock and remake Las Vegas as a power run team featuring rookie back Ashton Jeanty and some vintage Chip Kelly designs will be an interesting experiment to watch. The Raiders have a future All-Pro tight end in Brock Bowers, and a mobile quarterback in Geno Smith, so they could find some success with a power run/play-action passing attack.
Vegas will be better than they were a year ago. Unfortunately for Carroll, they’re the fourth-best team in a loaded division, so success may have to be measured in something other than wins. That’s a tricky proposition for a 74-year-old head coach.
1. Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas
Schottenheimer inherits the best overall roster of the new coaching hires, with the best quarterback (Dak Prescott), best receiving tandem (CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens), and arguably the best all-around player (Micah Parsons). He also inherits the most meddlesome owner of the bunch (Jerry Jones), whom many believe hired Schottenheimer because it would allow him to micromanage the team.
Dallas seems to perennially under-achieve. They are constantly ranked among the most talented teams in the league, yet haven’t advanced past the divisional round of the playoffs in 30 years. Jones is not young (82 years old), and must be growing impatient in his quest to win another Super Bowl. When you put all of this together, it stands to reason Schottenheimer needs to find success quickly or Jones will look for another coach to do his bidding.
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