The coronation of Arch Manning was premature, and so is the funeral
The narrative went like this:
Arch Manning, spawn of the royal family of quarterbacks in America, will be the unquestioned number one pick in the NFL draft whenever he decides to come out, immediately creating a dynasty out of whichever franchise is blessed with the privilege of selecting him.
Now it goes like this:
Arch Manning sucks.
It took just one game to flip everything on its head. The Boy Wonder became the Big Bust in four quarters of football. Never mind that those four quarters came against the defending national champions, on the road, in a season-opener, with a graduate of the Belichick School of Defense as the opposing coordinator. Or that Ohio State had all summer to prepare for Manning. Or that Manning had never started a consequential college football game in his life. Manning and the Longhorns struggled mightily in Columbus, losing 14-7 and looking anemic on offense. The same fans and pundits who were prematurely chiseling Manning’s bust for Canton were quick to smash it to pieces.
“NFL teams ‘Planning for Manning’ should think again.”
“Arch Manning’s path to the top pick in the draft hits a roadblock.”
“Arch Manning is the Bronny James of football.”
That last one was my favorite.
There’s no doubt Manning struggled. His final stat line — 17-30 for 170 yards, one touchdown, one interception and 38 rushing yards — was actually better than his play indicated. Manning seemed confused by the coverage disguises Matt Patricia threw at him. His mechanics looked bad at times. He was inaccurate, going 4-11 on throws that travelled 10+ yards in the air. His first throw of the day was a short-hop, and on his 3rd quarter interception he was terribly late with the ball:
ARCH MANNING IS PICKED OFF 😱
The @ohiostatefb defense comes up with another massive play 😤 pic.twitter.com/5yaBXYZrQm
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 30, 2025
Manning did heat up in the fourth-quarter, leading a scoring drive and making some nice throws on Texas’s final possession. But it was too little, too late. The Twitter-verse needed little prodding to do its thing:
Arch Manning next year if he keeps playing like he is today. pic.twitter.com/QQE9hBoRjx
— Harry Berries (@MrHarryBerries) August 30, 2025
All is fair in love, war and social media, so I don’t begrudge the content creators who are burying Manning right now. Nor do I blame the scouts who may be wearing the erasers on their pencils to a nub revising the glowing previews they wrote about him. 22 NFL teams sent representatives to Columbus on Saturday. You’ll struggle to find any who were impressed. Manning did himself no favors with his performance, and a re-evaluation of his prospects seems prudent.
Still, some perspective would be nice. Expectations for Manning were so high going into the Ohio State game that meeting them was almost impossible. Many forgot how good Ohio State’s defense is. Yes, they lost a bunch of studs to the NFL draft. But they returned Caleb Downs, arguably the best safety in America, who Patricia used like Ed Reed to confuse Manning. The array of cover-2 looks the Buckeyes threw at him was dazzling. They took away the deep ball and buzzed the underneath zones with countless combinations of defenders. They rushed linebackers and dropped linemen. They blitzed defensive backs. They made throwing into the middle of the field almost impossible.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian struggled to find easy throws for Manning. And Texas was terrible on fourth down, going 1-5 with two misses coming from inside the Ohio State 10-yard-line. Sarkisian, one of the best play-callers in college football, seems to have been baffled by Patricia’s scheme, too.
Manning wasn’t the only high-profile quarterback to struggle on Saturday. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, another projected first round pick, spent Saturday night running for his life in a 17-10 home loss to LSU. He completed just 19 of 38 throws for 230 yards and an interception. Klubnik’s counterpart in that game, Garrett Nussmeier, fared better, but didn’t light the world on fire. UCLA transfer Nico Iamaleava, thought to be a major pro prospect, looked terrible as the Bruins were drubbed 43-10 by Utah.
Defenses are often ahead of offenses early in the season. They take less time to gel and less practice reps to perfect their execution. It’s not surprising to see young quarterbacks struggle in early-season starts against stellar defensive opponents. Many of the pro prospects at the position found themselves stranded in this particular boat over the weekend. But Manning, because of his name, and the hype that surrounded him, bore the brunt of the backlash.
What does it ultimately mean for his draft stock? In the short term, it took a hit. No one who watched his performance on Saturday could emerge without concerns. But let’s be a little more patient before we label him a bust. He will get better with reps, and as the season progresses, he will learn from his mistakes. Remember, most people close to Manning believe he will return to Texas after this season rather than opting for the NFL draft. That seems like a great move right now. It could mean Manning will have another 25-30 starts under his belt by the time he declares. His debut was a stinker. But 25 starts from now, he may really be all-that-and-a-bag-of-chips, as everyone initially thought.
The coronation of Arch Manning was premature. But so is the funeral. Let’s see how the young man develops before we sharpen our shovels.
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