The NFL’s three hold-out stars, and the odds they come to terms with their current teams

The top story in the NFL right now is the intrigue surrounding three major stars seeking contract extensions with their current teams. Here’s a summary of their situations, and my best guess on the odds of them coming to terms with their current team.

MICAH PARSONS, COWBOYS

Parsons sent shock waves through the league last Friday by asking for a trade. The gesture felt sincere, like an honest but unenthusiastic demand borne of frustration with an inept organization. You really sense Parsons feels disrespected, and has had it with the Cowboys.

In truth, why shouldn’t he? Jerry Jones has taken every opportunity he can to minimize Parsons’ importance to the organization. This is a fairly common negotiating tactic for Jones, who once claimed to not know who Dak Prescott’s agent was despite meeting with him several times in their tricky contract negotiation a few years back. Maybe Jones’s ego won’t allow him to recognize there are bigger stars in Dallas than him. Maybe he has an old-school “you work for me” mentality when it comes to the team’s players, and won’t let them dictate the terms of the negotiation. Whatever it is, Jones has really pushed Parsons, perhaps beyond a breaking point.

A trade request eventually got Myles Garrett the deal he was seeking with Cleveland, so perhaps this will work out for Parsons and Dallas. But whereas Garrett was using his demand as a negotiating tactic, the bitterness here seems genuine. Dallas could end this by coming to their senses and offering Parsons market value, but the Cowboys are on the short list of teams who can screw this up. I lean towards the two sides working this one out, but there’s really no telling how it could end.

CHANCES PARSONS COMES TO TERMS WITH DALLAS: 60%

TERRY McLAURIN, COMMANDERS

McLaurin has also made a trade demand in his own frustrating negotiations with Washington. He wants a deal that would top the $33 million per season the Steelers gave DK Metcalf. But McLaurin, who turns 30 in September, is three years older than Metcalf, and Washington has no interest in paying him that amount. The Patriots, Steelers, Raiders and Cardinals have all been mentioned as potential trade partners for McLaurin. What would it take to pry McLaurin away from Washington? And would the Commanders really trade him?

The answer to that first question is probably something like a 3rd Round draft pick, plus a renegotiated deal in the neighborhood of $90 million over three seasons. That’s below what Metcalf got, but I can’t see anyone paying McLaurin more than Metcalf. The answer to the second question is probably no. The Commanders are coming off of a surprise run to the NFC championship game, and acquired Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel this off-season to help them get to the Super Bowl. They’re going for it, which means unloading their top receiver makes zero sense. Someone would have to blow them away with an offer for the Commanders to move McLaurin.

CHANCES McLAURIN COMES TO TERMS WITH WASHINGTON: 80%

TREY HENDRICKSON, BENGALS

Hendrickson is 30 years old and playing on a below-market-value deal of about $16 million per season. That palls in comparison to the one TJ Watt signed last week in Pittsburgh ($41 million AAV). While Hendrickson isn’t on Watt’s level, he’s not far behind. Advantage Hendrickson, right?

Probably not. Cincinnati has enough cap space to sign Hendrickson, but is not likely to overpay after shelling out massive contracts for Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins. Hendrickson has already tried to force a trade, to hold out, and even to retire, all to no avail. What leverage does he have left?

This seems like the deal most likely to get done. Cincinnati, who stunk on defense last season, has to lock up their best defensive player. And Hendrickson has to sign in lieu of the fact he has no real alternatives.

CHANCES HENDRICKSON COMES TO TERMS WITH CINCINNATI: 98%

For more of my work, follow me on X @KTSmithFFSN, and check out my “Call Sheet Daily” podcast, which airs every Monday-Friday mornings on all major platforms.